The upcoming elections in the Japanese lower house will be interesting in one regard no matter what. The long reigning Liberal Democratic Party will be replaced by the Democratic Party of Japan. What this means for the future of the US-Japan Alliance is open to dispute.
Dan Twining on Foreign Policy says that the coming change in leadership represents a sea change in US-Japan relations.
The SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement), Japanese support for American forces, and the Okinawa bases are the most intractable issues in alliance politics, and DPJ leaders make clear that nothing is sacred in their determination to rebalance alliance relations upon taking power. This position stands in stark contrast to the deference with which generations of LDP leaders treated Washington and the alliance framework that has made possible Japan’s postwar prosperity and security.
Tobias Harris disagrees and argues that this fundamentally change nothing really.
The DPJ’s leaders are hardly radicals. At the very least, the US-Japan alliance will remain an indispensable pillar for the indefinite future, especially because a DPJ government will be no more inclined than an LDP government to spend more on defense. The presence of hawks within the DPJ will probably ensure that defense spending does not fall further than it already has under the LDP, but a DPJ-led Japan will not be gearing up for the development of serious autonomous capabilities. But beyond that, it does seem to be contradictory for Twining to question the DPJ’s ability to address “structural conundrums” but then blithely assert that the DPJ will single-handedly threaten the institution that has been the centerpiece of Japanese security policy for nearly sixty years.
I am more inclined to agree with Harris if only because Twining tips his hand to show his love and affection for two of Japan’s most feckless prime ministers in recent history: “Shinzo Abe and Taro Aso, have possessed a clear vision for Japan in the world.” Both prime ministers were as ineffectual as Yasuo Fukuda and both Abe and Aso’s foreign policies consisted of drumming up fears over North Korea, flirting with the idea of developing a nuclear deterrent and both will have lasted a year or less when the LDP falls next month.
Still, Japanese political debates are like to stay pretty quotidian no matter who is in charge in Tokyo.
